Economics Hubbert peak theory

oil imports country pre-2006


energy return on energy investment

the ratio of energy extracted energy expended in process referred energy return on energy investment (eroi or eroei). should eroei drops one, or equivalently net energy gain falls zero, oil production no longer net energy source.

there difference between barrel of oil, measure of oil, , barrel of oil equivalent (boe), measure of energy. many sources of energy, such fission, solar, wind, , coal, not subject same near-term supply restrictions oil is. accordingly, oil source eroei of 0.5 can usefully exploited if energy required produce oil comes cheap , plentiful energy source. availability of cheap, hard transport, natural gas in oil fields has led using natural gas fuel enhanced oil recovery. similarly, natural gas in huge amounts used power athabasca tar sands plants. cheap natural gas has led ethanol fuel produced net eroei of less 1, although figures in area controversial because methods measure eroei in debate.

the assumption of inevitable declining volumes of oil , gas produced per unit of effort contrary recent experience in us. in united states, of 2017, there has been ongoing decade-long increase in productivity of oil , gas drilling in major tight oil , gas plays. energy information administration reports, instance, in bakken shale production area of north dakota, volume of oil produced per day of drilling rig time in january 2017 4 times oil volume per day of drilling 5 years previous, in january 2012, , 10 times oil volume per day of ten years previous, in january 2007. in marcellus gas region of northeast, volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in january 2017 3 times gas volume per day of drilling 5 years previous, in january 2012, , 28 times gas volume per day of drilling ten years previous, in january 2007.

growth-based economic models

world energy consumption & predictions, 2005–2035. source: international energy outlook 2011.

insofar economic growth driven oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. hubbert believed:

some economists describe problem uneconomic growth or false economy. @ political right, fred ikle has warned conservatives addicted utopia of perpetual growth . brief oil interruptions in 1973 , 1979 markedly slowed—but did not stop—the growth of world gdp.

between 1950 , 1984, green revolution transformed agriculture around globe, world grain production increased 250%. energy green revolution provided fossil fuels in form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), , hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.

david pimentel, professor of ecology , agriculture @ cornell university, , mario giampietro, senior researcher @ national research institute on food , nutrition (inran), place in study food, land, population , u.s. economy maximum u.s. population sustainable economy @ 200 million. achieve sustainable economy world population have reduced two-thirds, says study. without population reduction, study predicts agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. 2050. peaking of global oil along decline in regional natural gas production may precipitate agricultural crisis sooner expected. dale allen pfeiffer claims coming decades see spiraling food prices without relief , massive starvation on global level such never experienced before.