When Prophecy Fails Leon Festinger

festinger , collaborators, henry riecken , stanley schachter, examined conditions under disconfirmation of beliefs leads increased conviction in such beliefs in 1956 book when prophecy fails. group studied small apocalyptic cult led dorothy martin (under pseudonym marian keech in book), suburban housewife. martin claimed have received messages guardians, group of superior beings planet. messages purportedly said flood destroy world on december 21, 1954. 3 psychologists , several more assistants joined group. team observed group firsthand months before , after predicted apocalypse. many of group members quit jobs , disposed of possessions in preparation apocalypse. when doomsday came , went, martin claimed world had been spared because of force of , light group members had spread throughout world. rather abandoning discredited beliefs, group members adhered them more , began proselytizing fervor.

festinger , co-authors concluded following conditions lead increased conviction in beliefs following disconfirmation:

1. belief must held deep conviction , relevant believer s actions or behavior.
2. belief must have produced actions arguably difficult undo.
3. belief must sufficiently specific , concerned real world such can disconfirmed.
4. disconfirmatory evidence must recognized believer.
5. believer must have social support other believers.

festinger later described increased conviction , proselytizing cult members after disconfirmation specific instantiation of cognitive dissonance (i.e., increased proselyting reduced dissonance producing knowledge others accepted beliefs) , application understanding complex mass phenomena.