Hubbert peaks Hubbert peak theory

1 hubbert peaks

1.1 natural gas
1.2 coal
1.3 fissionable materials
1.4 helium
1.5 transition metals
1.6 precious metals
1.7 phosphorus
1.8 peak water
1.9 renewable resources

hubbert peaks

although hubbert peak theory receives attention in relation peak oil production, has been applied other natural resources.

natural gas

doug reynolds predicted in 2005 north american peak occur in 2007. bentley predicted world decline in conventional gas production 2020 .

coal

although observers believe peak coal further out peak oil, hubbert studied specific example of anthracite in us, high grade coal, production peaked in 1920s. hubbert found anthracite matches curve closely. hubbert had recoverable coal reserves worldwide @ 2.500 × 10 metric tons , peaking around 2150 (depending on usage).

more recent estimates suggest earlier peak. coal: resources , future production (pdf 630kb), published on april 5, 2007 energy watch group (ewg), reports german parliament, found global coal production peak in few 15 years. reporting on this, richard heinberg notes date of peak annual energetic extraction coal come earlier date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted energy-dense types of coal have been mined extensively. second study, future of coal b. kavalov , s. d. peteves of institute energy (ife), prepared european commission joint research centre, reaches similar conclusions , states coal might not abundant, available , reliable energy source in future .

work david rutledge of caltech predicts total of world coal production amount 450 gigatonnes. implies coal running out faster assumed.

fissionable materials

in paper in 1956, after review of fissionable reserves, hubbert notes of nuclear power:

as of 2015, identified resources of uranium sufficient provide more 135 years of supply @ present rate of consumption. technologies such thorium fuel cycle, reprocessing , fast breeders can, in theory, extend life of uranium reserves hundreds thousands of years.

caltech physics professor david goodstein stated in 2004 that

helium

helium production , storage in united states, 1940–2014 (data usgs)

almost helium on earth result of radioactive decay of uranium , thorium. helium extracted fractional distillation natural gas, contains 7% helium. world s largest helium-rich natural gas fields found in united states, in hugoton , nearby gas fields in kansas, oklahoma, , texas. extracted helium stored underground in national helium reserve near amarillo, texas, self-proclaimed helium capital of world . helium production expected decline along natural gas production in these areas.

helium, second-lightest chemical element, rise upper layers of earth s atmosphere, can forever break free earth s gravitational attraction. approximately 1,600 tons of helium lost per year result of atmospheric escape mechanisms.

transition metals

hubbert applied theory rock containing abnormally high concentration of given metal , reasoned peak production metals such copper, tin, lead, zinc , others occur in time frame of decades , iron in time frame of 2 centuries coal. price of copper rose 500% between 2003 , 2007 , attributed peak copper. copper prices later fell, along many other commodities , stock prices, demand shrank fear of global recession. lithium availability concern fleet of li-ion battery using cars paper published in 1996 estimated world reserves adequate @ least 50 years. similar prediction platinum use in fuel cells notes metal recycled.

precious metals

in 2009, aaron regent president of canadian gold giant barrick gold said global output has been falling 1 million ounces year since start of decade. total global mine supply has dropped 10pc ore quality erodes, implying roaring bull market of last 8 years may have further run. there strong case made @ peak gold , told daily telegraph @ rbc s annual gold conference in london. production peaked around 2000 , has been in decline ever since, , forecast decline continue. increasingly difficult find ore, said.

ore grades have fallen around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 nearer 3 grams in us, canada, , australia. south africa s output has halved since peaking in 1970. output fell further 14 percent in south africa in 2008 companies forced dig ever deeper – @ greater cost – replace depleted reserves.

world mined gold production has peaked 4 times since 1900: in 1912, 1940, 1971, , 2001, each peak being higher previous peaks. latest peak in 2001, when production reached 2,600 metric tons, declined several years. production started increase again in 2009, spurred high gold prices, , achieved record new highs each year in 2012, 2013, , in 2014, when production reached 2,990 tonnes.

phosphorus

phosphorus supplies essential farming , depletion of reserves estimated @ somewhere 60 130 years. according 2008 study, total reserves of phosphorus estimated approximately 3,200 mt, peak production @ 28 mt/year in 2034. individual countries supplies vary widely; without recycling initiative america s supply estimated around 30 years. phosphorus supplies affect agricultural output in turn limits alternative fuels such biodiesel , ethanol. increasing price , scarcity (global price of rock phosphate rose 8-fold in 2 years mid 2008) change global agricultural patterns. lands, perceived marginal because of remoteness, high phosphorus content, such gran chaco may more agricultural development, while other farming areas, nutrients constraint, may drop below line of profitability.

peak water

hubbert s original analysis did not apply renewable resources. however, over-exploitation results in hubbert peak nonetheless. modified hubbert curve applies resource can harvested faster can replaced.

for example, reserve such ogallala aquifer can mined @ rate far exceeds replenishment. turns of world s underground water , lakes finite resources peak usage debates similar oil. these debates center around agriculture , suburban water usage generation of electricity nuclear energy or coal , tar sands mining mentioned above water resource intensive. term fossil water used describe aquifers water not being recharged.

renewable resources

fisheries: @ least 1 researcher has attempted perform hubbert linearization (hubbert curve) on whaling industry, charting transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion. atlantic northwest cod fishery renewable resource, numbers of fish taken exceeded fish s rate of recovery. end of cod fishery match exponential drop of hubbert bell curve. example cod of north sea.
air/oxygen: half world s oxygen produced phytoplankton. numbers of plankton have dropped 40% since 1950s.




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