Crude Oil Hubbert peak theory

hubbert s upper-bound prediction crude oil production (1956), , actual lower-48 states production through 2014

hubbert, in 1956 paper, presented 2 scenarios crude oil production:

most estimate: logistic curve logistic growth rate equal 6%, ultimate resource equal 150 giga-barrels (gb) , peak in 1965. size of ultimate resource taken synthesis of estimates well-known oil geologists , geological survey, hubbert judged case.
upper-bound estimate: logistic curve logistic growth rate equal 6% , ultimate resource equal 200 giga-barrels , peak in 1970.

hubbert s upper-bound estimate, regarded optimistic, accurately predicted oil production peak in 1970, although actual peak 17% higher hubbert s curve. production declined, hubbert had predicted, , stayed within 10 percent of hubbert s predicted value 1974 through 1994; since then, actual production has been greater hubbert curve. development of new technologies has provided access large quantities of unconventional resources, , boost of production has largely discounted hubbert s prediction.

hubbert s 1956 production curves depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, dissatisfied uncertainty introduced, given various estimates ranging 110 billion 590 billion barrels us. starting in 1962 publication, made calculations, including of ultimate recovery, based on mathematical analysis of production rates, proved reserves, , new discoveries, independent of geological estimates of future discoveries. concluded ultimate recoverable oil resource of contiguous 48 states 170 billion barrels, production peak in 1966 or 1967. considered because model incorporated past technical advances, future advances occur @ same rate, , incorporated. hubbert continued defend calculation of 170 billion barrels in publications of 1965 , 1967, although 1967 had moved peak forward slightly, 1968 or 1969.

a post-hoc analysis of peaked oil wells, fields, regions , nations found hubbert s model useful (providing best fit data), though many areas studied had sharper peak predicted.

a 2007 study of oil depletion uk energy research centre pointed out there no theoretical , no robust practical reason assume oil production follow logistic curve. neither there reason assume peak occur when half ultimate recoverable resource has been produced; , in fact, empirical evidence appears contradict idea. analysis of 55 post-peak countries found average peak @ 25 percent of ultimate recovery.